Ghost AI EA — XAUUSD M15 Trend-Following with 1.93 Profit Factor

Ghost AI EA is a MetaTrader 5 Expert Advisor that trades XAUUSD on the M15 timeframe using a dual SMA crossover system with fixed 1% risk per trade and a 2:1 reward-to-risk target.

A full-year backtest on $200 capital shows 1.93 profit factor at 19.06% peak equity drawdown; a second backtest on $1,000 across eight months returns a matching 1.94 profit factor at 13.06% peak equity drawdown.

Key Benefits

• ✅ Consistent Profit Factor: Both backtests independently return ~1.93–1.94 profit factor — consistency across capital sizes, at the cost of a sub-50% win rate you must tolerate.
• ✅ Strategy: Captures sustained XAUUSD directional moves using a fast/slow SMA crossover on M15 — effective in trending sessions, underperforms in sideways chop.
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• ✅ Fixed Risk per Trade: 1% account risk per position prevents compounding losses — drawdown scales with account, not with a martingale multiplier.
• ✅ Defined Exit Logic: Every trade closes at a hard 2:1 reward-to-risk take profit — no open-ended exits or discretionary trailing that leave profits on the table.

Ghost AI EA Performance

A full-year M15 backtest on XAUUSD (January–December 2025) with $200 starting capital shows 1,552.82 net profit, 1.93 profit factor, and 19.06% peak equity drawdown across 223 trades.

A second backtest running April–December 2025 on $1,000 capital produces 1,282.07 net profit, 1.94 profit factor, and 13.06% peak equity drawdown across 155 trades — the lower drawdown percentage at higher capital reflects better position sizing headroom.

Performance Snapshot

The EA’s 58% loss rate is structural — the SMA crossover generates frequent small losses that the 2:1 reward ratio compensates for over a sequence of trades. The specific failure condition is a prolonged ranging XAUUSD market: when price oscillates between levels without trending, crossover signals fire repeatedly into reversals, stacking consecutive losses. The $200 backtest recorded a maximum of 9 consecutive losses totalling $112.71. This weakness is partially controllable — reducing the risk percentage below 1% per trade directly limits the dollar impact of losing streaks, though it does not reduce their frequency. No post-mitigation return data is available from the backtests at alternative risk settings.

Both backtests use 26%–36% real tick modeling — live spread variation, slippage, and broker execution gaps are not reflected in these figures.

How Ghost AI EA Works

Mechanism: Ghost AI EA exploits directional momentum in XAUUSD on the M15 timeframe using a 10-period fast SMA crossing above or below a 50-period slow SMA. Gold’s intraday trending behavior on 15-minute bars creates recurring crossover sequences that the strategy is built to capture — the fixed 2:1 reward ratio means profitable sequences outpace losing ones even at sub-50% accuracy.

Signal Trigger: A long position opens when the 10 SMA crosses above the 50 SMA. The EA trades only long — no short positions are taken at any point.

Position Close: Each trade closes at a fixed take profit set at 2× the initial risk distance. No trailing stop or time-based exit is applied.

Exposure Limits: Risk is fixed at 1% of account balance per trade. No basket logic, no martingale scaling — each trade is independent and sized identically relative to the account.

Optimal conditions: Sustained XAUUSD uptrends during active London or New York sessions; periods where gold reacts strongly to macro catalysts and holds directional momentum across multiple M15 bars.

Avoid when: XAUUSD is consolidating in a tight range — the 10/50 SMA crossover fires false signals repeatedly in sideways price action. Avoid running during ultra-low liquidity periods where spread widens significantly relative to the risk distance.

This EA requires MT5. Need MT4 platform support? Browse MT4 EA alternatives

Recommended Settings

Who Should Use Ghost AI EA

• ✅ Running MT5 on a VPS with XAUUSD access at your broker — this EA has no MT4 version.
• ✅ Comfortable holding a 41% win rate — the strategy loses more trades than it wins and requires capital to absorb 9-trade losing sequences without panic-closing the EA.
• ✅ Starting with $1,000 or more — the $200 minimum is technically functional but produces 19% peak equity drawdown; $1,000 reduces that to 13% in backtest conditions.
• ✅ Willing to demo-test 60+ days before going live — backtest modeling quality is 26–36% real ticks, meaning live spread and slippage will differ from what the reports show.

Performance verified with: MT5 backtests run on a Raw Trading Ltd account, XAUUSD M15, 1:100 leverage, $200 and $1,000 starting capital.

Product Download Package Includes

1. Experts:

✅ Ghost AI_fix.ex5

2. SetFiles:

✅ Gold_ai_risk2.set
✅ Gold_ai_risk3.set
✅ Gold_ai_risk5.set

The download link will be sent to your email immediately after purchase, along with a video tutorial on how to install it.

Frequently Asked Questions